The CFL King is a research tool for CFL player props. For every player and market — passing, rushing and receiving — we project a realistic number, turn it into a probability at the posted line, and surface the spots where our number disagrees with the market. Here's the whole approach, in plain English.
We start from official CFL.ca game logs — every player's per-game passing, rushing and receiving production, with history back to 2022. Working in per-game rates (not season totals) keeps short seasons and missed games from distorting the picture.
Recent games say more about a player's current role than games from a year ago. We weight the log with an exponentially-weighted moving average (decay 0.72), so the last few weeks carry the most signal while older form still counts.
A three-game hot streak isn't a new true level. We pull each player's weighted rate back toward their season baseline, shrinking noisy small samples so the projection stays stable and honest.
The projection becomes a distribution: a Normal model for continuous yardage markets, and a Poisson model for counting markets (receptions, touchdowns, completions). From that we read off P(over) at the exact PrizePicks line — the probability the player clears it.
We compare that probability to the line's break-even and show the gap as an edge — but we deliberately shrink it. Prop markets are efficient, so the edge you see is a calibrated read, not a claim that we beat the closing line. Calibration is honesty, not a promised profit.
We weigh the size of the edge against how much data stands behind the projection and sort each pick into a tier so you can see our conviction at a glance.
Strongest reads — larger edge, deeper sample.
A clear edge we're comfortable surfacing.
A smaller edge worth a look.
Little to no edge, or projection-only — shown for research.
Once games finish, every posted pick is graded — win, loss, or push — and added to the track record by confidence tier. Nothing gets quietly deleted after the fact.
See our model accuracy → — the reliability curve and Brier score showing whether our published probabilities match real-world frequencies. Calibration, not a betting record.
No. Player props are inherently uncertain and even our highest-probability picks lose regularly. Prop markets are efficient, so we make no claim to beat the closing line — the model aims to be well-calibrated and useful for research, which is exactly why we publish a transparent track record.
Player game logs run back to 2022, sourced from official CFL.ca box scores. More history means the season baseline each projection regresses toward is grounded in real production.
Because we shrink it. An efficient market rarely leaves a large, reliable edge on a single prop, so we would rather show an honest small number — or none at all on projection-only rows — than an inflated one.
As an information tool, not financial advice. Only ever risk money you can afford to lose, and treat every projection as an estimate carrying real uncertainty.
The CFL King is for entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. If gambling is no longer fun, it's time to stop — please play responsibly.